Sarajevo — a city of 420,000 grew by 116 people in a year, and the cafés are still full
In 2019, Kanton Sarajevo recorded 4,320 births and 4,204 deaths. Net natural increase for a city of 420,000 people was 116. The canton's development strategy classifies the population as "regressive" — the young are shrinking, the old are growing, and the working-age population is in decline.
The seven censuses story covers Sarajevan demographic history from 1851 to 2013. This piece covers what the canton’s own 2021–2027 development strategy says about what happened next.
The number
In 2019, Kanton Sarajevo recorded:
- 4,320 births
- 4,204 deaths
- Net natural increase: 116 people
That is the natural-increase figure for a city of 420,496 residents. A rate of 0.3 per thousand. In the same year, the birth rate dropped to 10.3 per thousand, down from 11.0 in 2014. The death rate held steady at 10.0.
One hundred and sixteen people. For context: the Alipašino Polje housing estate was built between 1977 and 1980 for 30,000 residents (see our story). That was during a period when the city’s population was tripling, from 111,087 in 1948 to over 440,000 by 1980. The city used to add more people per year than the entire 2019 net increase.
What the strategy calls it
The strategy’s demographic section (pp. 22–25) uses a specific term: regresivni tip stanovništva, “regressive population type.” The classification is based on three indicators:
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The young (0–14) are shrinking. Their share of the population fell from 16.1% in 2014 to 15.7% in 2019. In absolute terms, the 0–14 cohort dropped from 66,633 to 65,942.
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The old (65+) are growing. Their share rose from 13.3% to 16.7%. In absolute terms, from 55,291 to 70,040 (an increase of 4.8% per year, the fastest-growing age group).
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The working-age population (15–64) is shrinking. It dropped from 292,797 to 284,514, a decline of 0.6% per year.
All three indicators moved in the regressive direction over the five-year observation period. The strategy notes that the working-age population lost approximately 9,000 people in five years.
Migration is keeping the city afloat
The city’s total population still grew slightly (from 414,721 to 420,496) between 2014 and 2019. If natural increase was only 116, where did the growth come from?
Migration. The strategy reports that between 2014 and 2019, 54,271 people moved into the canton and 48,696 moved out. Net positive migration: 5,575 people. That’s what kept the total population growing: internal migration from the rest of Bosnia to Sarajevo, not births.
The strategy adds a specific detail: the external migration balance (people moving to or from abroad) was negative by 2,425 over the same period. More people left the canton for foreign countries than arrived from them.
In other words, all of Kanton Sarajevo’s population growth in that period came from Bosnians in other cantons and entities moving in. The city absorbed them. It didn’t produce enough children to replace the generation that was leaving.
Where within the canton the numbers are worst
The strategy breaks the figures down by municipality. Three of the ten municipalities had negative population growth between 2014 and 2019:
- Stari Grad: dropped from 36,758 to 35,385 (−0.8%)
- Centar: dropped from 54,948 to 53,368 (−0.6%)
- Trnovo: dropped from 1,367 to 1,316 (−0.8%)
The first two are the core historic centre, the Ottoman and Habsburg quarters. They are losing residents. The growth is happening in the suburban municipalities: Vogošća (+1.3%), Ilidža (+0.9%), Ilijaš (+0.8%).
The old city is emptying. The periphery is growing. The average age is rising. The working-age population is shrinking.
What the number means for a visitor
You are walking through a city that is, by its own government’s admission, in demographic decline. The Baščaršija you see is quieter in the mornings than it was in 2010, not because tourism has dropped, but because fewer Sarajevans live in the old centre.
The practical consequence: the service economy in the core — cafés, restaurants, shops — increasingly depends on tourism rather than on resident footfall. The 54.4% tourism concentration is partly a consequence of the demographic thinning. Fewer locals in the centre means fewer local businesses. Fewer local businesses means more tourist-oriented ones. Which means more tourist concentration.
What to do with the story
Read the seven censuses piece for the long demographic arc. Read the hotel-labour piece for one specific consequence of the labour gap.
The number is 116. It’s small. But the fuller picture isn’t only decline. 5,575 people moved to Kanton Sarajevo from the rest of Bosnia in the same period, enough to keep the total population growing. People are choosing the city. Vogošća grew 1.3% per year. Ilidža grew 0.9%. Ilijaš grew at the fastest rate of any municipality in the canton. The IT sector added jobs faster than any other. The Sarajevo Film Festival draws more international visitors each August. The War Childhood Museum won a Council of Europe prize one year after opening. The cable car hit 340,000 riders in 2024.
Sarajevo’s demographic structure is ageing. That’s a real problem with real consequences. But the city isn’t emptying. It’s being refilled by Bosnians from smaller towns who see what the strategy’s own data confirms: Sarajevo is still the place in the country where things are being built, opened, and chosen. The 116 is the natural-increase floor. The migration number is the vote of confidence. Both are in the same document.
Sources & further reading
Keep reading
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